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BIT's the Latest Research Result- “Self-preservation Strategy for Approaching Global Warming in the Post-Paris Agreement Era” Are Published in the Journal Nature

release date :2020-05-08 02:33:00  |   [ close window ]ViewCount:

  Beijing Institute of Technology, April 15th 2020: On April 14, 2020, the latest research result of  Professor Wei Yiming's team, belong to the Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center of BIT, "Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming in the post-Paris Agreement era", published online in the form of Research Article in the Nature sub-journal "Nature Communications", and was included in the Nature focus papers (only 1% of all published papers in Nature series of journals each year were chosen)

  This work was based on long-term cooperation between Professor Wei Yiming, Professor Yu Biying and Professor Liang Qiaomei of the BIT’s Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center. Under the support of the National Key Research and Development Program Project (2016YFA0602600) led by Professor Wei Yiming, “Research on the Comprehensive Assessment Model of Climate Change Economic Impact” and the support of national tasks such as the National Natural Science Foundation Innovation Research Group Project (71521002), this work was done. Professor Wei Yiming is the first author and corresponding author of the article, and BIT is the first completion unit. Collaborators include international research teams at the Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden and State University of New York.

  Responding to climate change requires collective action by countries around the world. In December 2015, the parties adopted the Paris Agreement and specified the goal of controlling global temperature's rise to no more than 2 degrees before industrialization by the end of this century, and established the goal of controlling temperature's change within1.5-degree as a long-term effort to combat climate change. The Paris Agreement stipulates that each party submits a "Nationally Determined Emissions Reduction Contribution" (NDC) every five years, and each country independently sets emission reduction targets. However, most of the existing research have shown that the national independent emission reduction contribution cannot meet the requirements of 2 degrees and 1.5 degrees temperature control goals. In order to keep the NDC and global temperature control goals approaching, the "Paris Agreement" has set up a dynamic evaluation mechanism that requires countries to increase their emission reductions on a phased basis based on their own emission reduction capabilities. However, due to short-term economic development considerations, countries or regions may refuse to strengthen short-term actions, which poses serious challenges to the governance of post-Paris era global climate. In this context, quantifying the potential benefits and costs corresponding to the action plans of various countries under the temperature control goal can help increase the country's enthusiasm to respond to climate change and promote the process of global climate governance.

  In order to achieve long-term temperature control goals to avoid huge losses, Professor Wei Yiming ’s team adopted the self-developed “China Climate Change Comprehensive Assessment Model" (abbreviation: C3IAM). The possible economic benefits and climate losses avoided by climate change were evaluated, and the best "self-protection strategy" that can achieve no regrets for all parties in the post-Paris Agreement era was proposed. The study found that although achieving the 2nd and 1.5th goals requires a certain upfront cost, if the current emission reduction efforts (NDC) are not improved, by the end of this century,  compared with the realization of temperature control,the world will lose about 127 to 616 trillion US dollars of gains; if countries can not achieve the current NDC, it is expected that the global missed gains may reach 150 to 792 trillion US dollars.

Construction of self-protection strategy and its main features

       Under the "self-protection strategy", the world will achieve a turnaround in 2065-2070. At the end of this century, all countries and regions will have the positive cumulative net income, which is expected to reach 0.46% to 5.24% of GDP in 2100. The average net expenditure of each country is less than 0.57% of annual GDP, and its impact on economic growth is very limited. Under the goal of temperature control, the world needs about 18-114 trillion U.S. dollars of pre-investment in order to achieve a turnaround in climate change. Among them, the G20 Group countries need to pay about 16-104 trillion US dollars of pre-investment; Latin America, the Middle East and Africa and other relatively vulnerable countries and regions need to invest 1.35-9.77 and 0.06-0.31 trillion US dollars then in 2060-2075 they will realize profitability by 2030-2035.

Under the self-protection strategy, the global, various regions and countries can obtain net income and turnaround time.

       For now, most countries are not ambitious about their own emission reduction targets. In order to achieve long-term temperature control goals and economic benefits, in 2030, the world will need to further reduce emissions by 19-29 and 28-30 tons carbon dioxide on the basis of existing NDC to achieve  temperature control goals within 2 ° and 1.5 °. Based on the existing NDC, all countries and regions need to further increase their emission reduction efforts. Among them, Japan, the United States, Russia, the European Union, and China need to make more efforts, and need to achieve net zero emissions by the middle of this century.

Global, regional and national (regional) emissions gaps from temperature control targets under self-protection strategies

     Based on the model results, the research team compiled a global plan to improve national independent emission reduction contributions to achieve temperature control goals in post-Paris Agreement era; predicted the time for countries to turn losses into profit under different schemes; quantified the upfront investment to achieve loss-for-profit, providing a scientific basis for NDC goal update, global inventory, and capital and technology transfer between countries.

  Previously, Professor Wei Yiming's team had published research articles in 4 Nature Sub-Journals including Nature Energy, Nature Climate Change, Nature Communications, and Nature Sustainability.
Paper DOI: 10.1038 / s41467-020-15453-z.
Original download address: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15453-z

 

Article: School of Management and Economics
Translator & Editor: News Agency of BIT

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