A research team led by Professor Wei Yiming from the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT) recently discovered that ignoring ozone effects can significantly underestimate the benefits of global carbon neutrality policies on crops and the economy. This study provides a new perspective and scientific basis for understanding the comprehensive impact of these policies on agriculture.

The findings, published in the journal Nature Food on May 20, 2026, in an article titled Including ozone increases estimated global crop and economic benefits of carbon neutrality policies, highlight the dual impact of climate conditions and ozone stress on crop growth.

Human activities emit greenhouse gases and pollutants that exacerbate climate change and ozone pollution, causing significant agricultural losses and systemic economic impacts. Carbon neutrality policies aim to control emissions, offering potential agricultural and economic benefits.

However, previous research did not fully consider the combined effects of climate factors and ozone within a unified framework, nor the feedback processes between economic, climate, and agricultural systems. This gap limits the understanding of the full impact of carbon neutrality policies.

Using the climate change integrated assessment model (C3IAM 3.0) developed by Professor Wei's team, the study constructs dual impact pathways of climate change and ozone pollution. It illustrates the multi-system feedback processes among climate, ozone, agriculture, and the economy, quantifying potential agricultural and economic losses that global carbon neutrality policies could avoid. The study also proposes differentiated adaptation and mitigation policy recommendations for countries at different development levels, providing quantified support for sustainable agricultural development amid global climate governance.

The research indicates that implementing global carbon neutrality policies could increase the total yield of major crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat by 0.5 percent to 41.5 percent, translating to a global GDP benefit of 0.03 percent to 0.26 percent. By 2060, over 70 percent of crop-growing areas could achieve yield increases under current carbon neutrality policies. Ignoring ozone effects could lead to underestimating the impact on major crop yields by 0.5 percent to 27.8 percent by 2060. Additionally, considering only climate factors could underestimate the effectiveness of carbon neutrality policies in mitigating agricultural yield reductions by up to 38.7 percent.

The paper's corresponding authors include professors Wei Yiming, Yu Biying, Liu Lijing, Yuan Xiaocheng from BIT, and Professor Drew Shindell from Duke University, with BIT doctoral student Wei Siyi as the lead student author.

Paper details:

Wei, Y.-M.*, Wei, S.-Y., Yu, B.*, Liu, L.-J.*, Liang, Q.-M., Yuan, X.-C.*, Sampedro, J., Jiang, X.-Y., Ji, C.-J., Yi, C., Liu, S.-Y., Yang, B., Yao, Y.-F., Shindell, D.* Including ozone increases estimated global crop and economic benefits of carbon neutrality policies. *Nature Food* (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s43016-026-01351-y